Tomato Paste Wholesale: EU & Middle East Market Trends (2025–2026)

A Market Under Pressure

Tomato paste remains one of the most actively traded processed food commodities globally — a backbone ingredient across European food manufacturing and Middle Eastern cuisine alike. Yet 2025 and early 2026 have brought a convergence of supply tightening and robust demand growth that is pushing prices meaningfully higher in both regions.

Hot Break vs. Cold Break: The Grade That Defines Your Price

Understanding which grade you're buying is the foundation of any tomato paste procurement decision.

Hot Break (HB) paste is processed at high temperatures immediately after crushing, preserving pectin and delivering a thick, viscous consistency. It dominates global bulk trade — especially in the Middle East and Africa — and is the workhorse grade for industrial sauce, ketchup, and canned tomato production.

Cold Break (CB) paste is processed at lower temperatures, retaining more natural flavour volatiles and a brighter colour profile. It is the preferred grade for premium European sauce manufacturing, ready meals, and foodservice applications — and commands a consistent price premium of 8–15% over equivalent HB grades.

Supply Context: Why Prices Are Rising

The 2025 processing tomato season delivered a supply shortfall in two of the world's three major producing blocs:

• China — the world's dominant bulk paste exporter — saw its Xinjiang crop fall an estimated 6–8% below 2024 levels due to heat stress during the August harvest window. Carryover stocks entering 2026 are tighter than usual.
• California recorded its second consecutive reduced harvest, though this primarily affects US domestic and Latin American markets.
• European producers (Italy, Spain, Portugal) delivered broadly stable volumes, though with some quality variability in Italy's Po Valley.

The result: firmer pricing across all grades, with Chinese-origin HB paste most affected on the volume side.

EU Market: Price Trend

European buyers have seen a clear upward trend in CIF prices at major EU ports:

• Chinese HB 28–30° Brix averaged approximately €920/MT in 2025, rising to an estimated €955/MT in Q1 2026 — reflecting tighter Chinese supply and elevated freight costs.
• European CB 28–30° Brix (Italian/Spanish origin) averaged approximately €1,150/MT in 2025, with Q1 2026 trades indicating levels of €1,170–€1,220/MT, supported by growing premium and organic segment demand.

Key EU demand drivers in 2025–2026:

• Retail private label manufacturers favouring Chinese HB for cost efficiency, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe
• Premium and organic segment growth — estimated at 8–12% annually — lifting demand for European CB and certified organic grades
• Ready meal manufacturers increasingly specifying CB for NPD targeting health-conscious consumers
• EUDR traceability requirements adding compliance overhead for non-EU origin paste

Middle East Market: Price Trend

The Gulf region remains the world's most price-competitive and volume-driven tomato paste import market, with an overwhelming preference for Hot Break grades.

• Chinese HB 28–30° Brix (CFR Gulf) averaged approximately $1,100/MT in 2025, rising to an estimated $1,130–$1,170/MT in Q1 2026, as tighter Chinese stocks and Red Sea freight disruptions added cost pressure.
• Turkish HB 28–30° Brix — an increasingly relevant alternative for Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — averaged $1,140/MT in 2025, tracking broadly in line with Chinese-origin paste but with shorter lead times for Gulf buyers.

Structural demand features in the Middle East:

• Large-can retail formats (400g, 800g, 2.5kg) dominate the consumer market
• Bulk drum and aseptic bag specifications drive wholesale imports
• Price sensitivity is high — buyers routinely source from China, Turkey, Italy, and Iran in parallel
• Turkey continues to grow market share on the back of proximity and competitive pricing

Outlook for H2 2026

The key variable for the second half of 2026 is China's Xinjiang processing tomato crop — harvest results are expected September–October 2026. Early indications suggest a potential partial recovery, which could stabilise HB pricing. However, any further disruption to Red Sea freight routes would continue to elevate landed costs.

For Cold Break grades in the EU, the premium is expected to remain wide as organic certified acreage grows slowly and ready meal demand continues its structural expansion.

Source with Foodiglobal

Foodiglobal supplies Hot Break and Cold Break tomato paste directly to European buyers — 28–30° Brix double concentrate in aseptic bags and drums, with full EU import documentation. Contact our team to discuss current availability and pricing.